Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious | Gerd Gigerenzer

book: Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious | Gerd Gigerenzer

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Gut Feelings: The ...

	Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious Gerd Gigerenzer Viking Adult, 2007 - 288 pages average customer review:based on 21 reviews view larger image
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highly recommended

Gigerenzer's thesis made accessible to a larger audience

"Gut Feelings" is a work aimed at a more general audience. Gerd Gigerenzer has written a number of academic works on the subject of this book; these would not be as readily accessible to a larger audience.

Since I find his scientific works most intriguing, I think that this specific book is apt to be most interesting for readers. It deals with a subject relevant to the recent best seller "The Black Swan." It makes for a nice comparison to read both volumes. Both authors speak to the poor record, for example, of stock analysts in predicting what stocks do well and what do not do well. However, their analyses march in different directions.

The dusk jacket notes the central focus of the work: "How does intuition work? What lies behind our moral behavior if not reflection and reasoning? How can simple `rules of thumb' help amateurs beat the stock market, outfielders catch a fly ball, parents choose a school, or lovers choose a mate?"

The main argument of the author is that the evolutionary process has led humans to develop "rules of thumb" or "heuristics" that tend to lead to efficient decision making processes. Does statistical analysis give better results than heuristics? Not necessarily, says the author.

What are these "shortcuts"? For instance, what if you are in a decision making situation and you need to respond to someone who may cause you problems or cooperate with you? The evidence suggests the value of a specific game with rules. As Gigerenzer puts it (page 62):

"(1) Cooperate first, (2) keep a memory of size one, and (3) imitate your partner's last behavior."

In plain English: If you are in competition with someone, at first cooperate. If they cooperate, you would continue cooperating. If they double cross you (don't cooperate), retaliate. Over time, according to a variety of studies, this works better than always double crossing people or always cooperating.

Other heuristics: "Take the first." That is, if your first cue suggests one decision over another, go with it, even if you are ignoring other information. If there is no advantage on the first cue, go to a second one. If one option is better, go with it. In short, satisfice; select the first option that seems to work. Others are discussed as well.

The book seems to digress a bit when it gets to moral behavior and social instincts.

Nonetheless, a thought-provoking work that is accessible to interested readers. Well worth looking at.

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reviews: 1, 2, 3, 4, page 5

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